Using ols regressions, he found that demographic change had no impact on economic growth stability in latin america and caribbean. They argue that it is possible that the interaction of economic growth with population dynamics can result in a poverty trap. Please do not cite without permission from the authors abstract in 1994 the world bank called east asia s strong economic growth performance a. Success stories from asia forty years ago, the countries of east and southeast asia were among the most densely populated in the world. Adaptation cost in 2050 allowing for historical exogenous yield growth. Development in an era of demographic change profound changes in global demography are expected to a. Asia and pacific department a new look at the determinants of growth in asian countries prepared by manuk ghazanchyan, janet g.
Please do not cite without permission from the authors abstract in 1994 the world bank called east asia s strong economic growth performance a miracle. Since 1990, east asia has undertaken major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. It also examines the relationship between population change and economic development in. Demographic changes in asia and japans economic and. Therefore, i would like to look at this issue today and talk about. Within the next decade, chinas labour force will begin to contract, while that of india will expand faster than its population. The global population increased nearly fourfold, growing from 1. Demographic determinants of economic growth in brics and. The effect of demographic change on income growth operates mainly through its. Demographic change and economic growth in south asia. Historical economic growth in asia excluding japan is analysed.
The purpose of the paper is to conduct some initial inquiries on this important topic. The phrase highlights the role of demographics in shaping many complex challenges and opportunities societies. Xiaoyan lei, peking university and chen bai, renmin university. Demographic changes, migration and economic growth in the. The conclusion that rapid population growth has slowed development is by no means straightforward or clearcut see box 5. Geography, demography, and economic growth in africa.
Demographic, employment, and wage trends in south africa. Andrew mason1 the twentieth century was a period of unprecedented demographic change. East asia appeared to be bleak because of the limited supply of agricultural land. Economics of climate change in east asia asian development bank.
Under certain conditions moderate population growth can be beneficial. Population aging and economic growth in china springerlink. The digital economy in southeast asia world bank documents. Pdf demographic change and economic growth in asia.
Pdf identifying factors that influence the pace of national economic growth is a timeworn activity of economists. The shrinking demographic dividend and managing an ageing population are now major challenges to chinas economic. Demographic, employment, and wage trends in south africa haroon bhorat. There is now widespread recognition that demographic change can have a profound and positive impact on economic growth, during the period in which declining mortality and fertility rates underpin a rising share of the workingage population and hence a boost to per capita income growth, known as a demographic dividend asian development.
We reexamine the role of the demographic transition in contributing to cross. Real gdp growth in southeast asia, china and india annual percentage change. It also examines the relationship between population change and economic development in particular regions of the world, including east asia, latin. Population ageing is a worldwide demographic phenomenon that has resulted from changes in fertility and mortality. Unified growth theory contradicted by the economic growth in asia. An increase in this share can also come about by a disproportionate increase in the survival of. The deducted result of the theoretical model shows that the share of workingage population is positively correlated with economic growth, whereas birth rate has an adverse impact. Structural and rural transformation in asia and the pacific. Climate change cop21 or paris climate conference in december 2015, 195 countries adopted the. Relative labour abundance will bring higher capital returns and an increasing share of global fdi to india. We explore how demographic changes in the asia and pacific region are likely to influence economic growth and other features of the regional economy. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging. Investment and government spending are likely to offset substantial weakness in trade.
With the exception of indonesias large petroleum reserves, the countries were poorly endowed in natural resources. A few countries in the tropics have made significant breakthroughs in economic growth in the past twentyfive years, in almost all cases. Bloom and canning 2005 studied global economic change and its economic significance. To investigate the economic impact of chinas population control policy, we have to answer the following two questions. The paper tests the impact of demographic change on chinas economic growth by using 19832008 provincial panel data. The gdp downturns noted during the 1980s could have been amplified by global debt burden and recession. The per capita gdp growth and productivity has been studied by marattin and salotti 2009. Demographic change and economic growth in asia, cid working papers 15, center for international development at harvard university. Finlay harvard school of public health september 2008 draft. Demographic change and economic growth in asia david e. Emerging asia continues to record positive gdp growth rates with 6.
Chinas economic growth, however, has received little attention. The world population is growing more slowly and aging at unprecedented speed. His current research is concerned with the economic lifecycle, intergenerational issues, and the eff ects of population change on development, economic growth, and public and private transfer systems. These results imply that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in east asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in southeast and south asia. Demographic change and economic growth in asia, pgda working papers 4108, program on the global demography of aging. The economic consequences of demographic change in east. Policy choices and actions can transform the population of a nation into a healthy, educated, empowered labor force that can contribute to real and sustained economic growth that lifts people out of poverty, according to the report. Digital trade as a gamechanger for womens empowerment.
As we are all aware, japan is a society with a rapidlyaging population caused mainly by a low birth rate. Does population aging affect economic growth in malaysia. Population aging and economic growth in asia 65 in fertility that reduces the number of youth, and thus with no change in the size of the elderly population, the elderly share increases. Accelerating rates of population growth were also a serious concern. Combine pdfs in the order you want with the easiest pdf merger available. It is also increasingly recognized that other asian economies are soon about to follow japans path. Population dynamics and economic growth in subsaharan. Pdf demographic change and economic growth in south asia. Demographic changes, migration and economic growth in the euro area axel borschsupan abc, duarte nuno leite ad and johannes rausch a 1. While many lowincome countries in the region will continue to experience a demographic dividend, over time population aging could drag on economic growth, especially in east asia. Three centuries of fundamental change ronaldlee b efore the start of the demographic transition, life was short, births were many, growth was slow and the population was young. Economic growth and structural change in south asia. The relationship between demographic change and economic growth in the eu research report 32 alexia prskawetz, thomas fent, werner barthel vienna institute of demography, austrian academy of sciences jesus crespocuaresma department of economics, university of innsbruck thomas lindh, bo malmberg, max halvarsson. Demographic change and economic growth in asia harvard.
Economic and social survey of asia and the pacific 2018. Aging, economic growth, and oldage security in asia. Population change and components of population growth 4. We argue that the extent of the demographic changes. As chapter 4 showed, in europe, japan, and north america economic growth has been accompanied by moderate population growth, which. This paper examines the links between demographic change and economic growth in asia during 196590. The bidirectional causality in south east asia abstract this study has demonstrated new evidence sustaining the idea that variation in demographic factors is an important determinant of growth in. The report contrasts the demographic changes in africa with those in east asia, latin america, and the middle east. Demographic change and economic growth in asia bloom. This paper describes how population aging will shape long run economic development in the euro zone. In most countries of the region, natural resources were limited, populations were growing, and standards of living were low. In 1994 the world bank called east asias strong economic growth. Past, present, and future asian economic growth in historical context let us turn back the clock and reflect on the history of asian economic growth. Assuming population growth decreases economic growth one for one ie, additional people.
We show that the overall rate of population growth had little effect on economic growth, but that changes in life expectancy, age structure, and population density have had a significant impact on growth rates. Important drivers of change impacting industries according to asean business. Demography is destiny is an oftcited phrase that suggests the size, growth, and structure of a nations population determines its longterm social, economic, and political fabric. Merger guidelines established by the federal trade commission and the u. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging asia. Effects of temperature shocks on economic growth and welfare in asia.
The most marked change is that of the mining sector. A new look at the determinants of growth in asian countries. What have we learned from the east asia experience. Population growth and ageing 41 4 economic effects of population growth and ageing in australia george kudrna and alan woodland. Economic outlook for southeast asia, china and india 2019.
Structural and rural transformation in asia and the pacific ifad. With 189 member countries, staff from more than 170 countries, and offices in over locations, the world bank group is a unique global partnership. Meeting the challenge of chinas changing population. Or it could represent, at least in part, a delayed effect of. Stotsky, and qianqian zhang1 authorized for distribution by david cowen august 2015 abstract this study examines the drivers of growth in asian countries, with focus on the role of investment. Meeting the challenge of chinas changing population 8 january 2020. During the transition, rst mortality and then fertility declined, causing population growth. Executive summary an assessment of recent economic growth economic growth in india, pakistan and bangladesh, the three largest economies of south asia, jumped from an average of 5 percent in the 1990s to well above that in 20002008.
1388 934 70 906 281 138 837 982 1588 491 977 1252 1313 294 1320 1635 17 269 565 191 14 1641 1658 572 1622 387 167 877 1111 97 68 1611 1371 1046 1217 1366 51 215 222 5